4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 7

Atlanta Falcons 13 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 3-M.Bryant 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 7, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model