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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 13

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Atlanta Falcons 26

What Actually Happened

(2:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-R.Woods ran ob at ATL 7 for 6 yards (21-D.Trufant).

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.90 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 13, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 23, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model