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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 5

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Atlanta Falcons 26

What Actually Happened

(2:11) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 12-S.Watkins (45-D.Jones) [97-G.Jarrett].

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.92 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 5, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model