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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 45

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Atlanta Falcons 26

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 17-R.Woods (44-V.Beasley).

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.36 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model