Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 55

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

(5:41) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to ATL 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.07 EP
62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 55, worth -2.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model