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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 33

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 3-M.Bryant 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.05 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model