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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 38

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(10:02) 3-B.Nortman punts 22 yards to BUF 16, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.43 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 38, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 47, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model