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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 58

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 3-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to BUF 22, Center-49-C.Holba. 15-B.Tate to BUF 16 for -6 yards (55-L.McCray; 53-B.Brown). PENALTY on BUF-41-B.Borders, Face Mask (15 Yards), 12 yards, enforced at BUF 22.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.99 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 58, worth -2.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 18, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model