Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 62

Buffalo Bills 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(11:47) 6-C.Schmidt punts 53 yards to JAX 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 85-J.Mickens MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at JAX 9.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.76 EP
76% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 62, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model