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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 81

Buffalo Bills 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(:47) 6-C.Schmidt punts 34 yards to JAX 47, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.40 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 81, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 38, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model