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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 51

Buffalo Bills 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 6-C.Schmidt punts 39 yards to JAX 12, impetus ends at JAX 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 14 for 2 yards (40-T.Vallejo).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.33 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 51, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -2.07 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model