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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 48

Buffalo Bills 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(11:25) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 37 yards to JAX 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.97 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.76 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model