Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 17 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

(5:59) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.26 EP
78% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 55, worth -2.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model