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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 57

Buffalo Bills 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(8:20) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 44 yards to JAX 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.96 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 57, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP