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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to BUF 30, Center-49-C.Holba. 15-B.Tate to BUF 37 for 7 yards (25-P.Thompson; 53-B.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.42 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 68, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 26, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model