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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 56

Buffalo Bills 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(1:17) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman scrambles left end to BUF 48 for 4 yards (50-T.Smith). FUMBLES (50-T.Smith), ball out of bounds at BUF 48.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.50 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 56, worth -0.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model