Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(5:47) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 62 yards to BUF 4, Center-49-C.Holba, downed by JAX-25-P.Thompson.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.27 EP
51% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model