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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 51

Buffalo Bills 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 40 yards to JAX 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.54 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 51, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -2.19 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP