Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 73

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 3-B.Nortman punts 52 yards to BUF 21, Center-49-C.Holba. 15-B.Tate to BUF 39 for 18 yards (30-C.Grant). PENALTY on BUF-41-B.Borders, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.85 EP
57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model