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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 9

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 9-G.Gano 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.04 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 9, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP