Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 78

Carolina Panthers 12 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(3:56) 5-M.Palardy punts 51 yards to NO 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Lewis to NO 33 for 6 yards (43-F.Whittaker). PENALTY on NO-24-S.Moore, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 78, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model