Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 77

New Orleans Saints 24 – Carolina Panthers 12

(1:45) 6-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to CAR 20, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-K.Clay to CAR 32 for 12 yards (49-Z.Wood).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.41 EP
63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model