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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 79

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to CAR 31, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-K.Clay to CAR 30 for -1 yards (34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.91 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 36, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model