4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 7

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.73 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 7, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP