Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 62

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Tennessee Titans 0

(6:09) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to TEN 8, Center-41-J.Winchester. 25-A.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 21 for 13 yards (80-J.Chesson).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.65 EP
65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model