Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

(11:57) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to TEN 20, Center-41-J.Winchester. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 25 for 5 yards (19-M.Kemp).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.15 EP
57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 71, worth -3.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model