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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 73

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(4:49) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to TEN 29, Center-41-J.Winchester. 25-A.Jackson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by KC-40-K.Reaser at TEN 28. 40-K.Reaser to TEN 28 for no gain (41-B.Trawick).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.44 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 31, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP