Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 75

Tennessee Titans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to KC 39, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds. PENALTY on KC-40-K.Reaser, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at KC 39.

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.02 EP
64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 75, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model