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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Jacksonville Jaguars
4th & 1 at the 1
Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0
What Actually Happened
(10:44) 27-L.Fournette up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.62 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.59 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.19 EP
KICK
+1.62 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT
-0.34 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
