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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 59

Jacksonville Jaguars 28 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(6:10) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 40 yards to PIT 19, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.68 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model