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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 39

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 28

What Actually Happened

(2:22) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-57-K.Canaday, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.96 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model