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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 43

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 35

What Actually Happened

(9:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-21-A.Bouye, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.37 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model