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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 57

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:13) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 46 yards to PIT 11, Center-49-C.Holba, downed by JAX-25-P.Thompson.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.28 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP