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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 53

Minnesota Vikings 17 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(3:16) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to NO 9, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.89 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 53, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 15, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP