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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 20 at the 40

New Orleans Saints 0 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(:26) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.32 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model