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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 40

Minnesota Vikings 17 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(8:07) 4-R.Quigley punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.48 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model