4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 31

Minnesota Vikings 17 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(10:17) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.50 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 31, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 41, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT +0.28 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model