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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 46

New Orleans Saints 21 – Minnesota Vikings 23

What Actually Happened

(:45) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 83-W.Snead pushed ob at MIN 33 for 13 yards (20-M.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.14 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP