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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 25

New Orleans Saints 21 – Minnesota Vikings 23

What Actually Happened

(:29) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +2.19 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model