4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 56

New Orleans Saints 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(7:18) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.29 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP