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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 72

New Orleans Saints 0 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(3:22) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to MIN 34, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.03 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 30, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP