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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 57

Minnesota Vikings 10 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(1:21) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 42 yards to NO 15, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.58 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 57, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 17, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP