4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 48

Tennessee Titans 7 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 6-B.Kern punts 31 yards to NE 17, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola. PENALTY on NE-93-L.Guy, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at NE 17.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.64 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.74 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP