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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 48

New England Patriots 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to TEN 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.54 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model