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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 84

Tennessee Titans 7 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to NE 44, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.39 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 84, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 42, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model