Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 79

Tennessee Titans 0 – New England Patriots 0

(9:24) 6-B.Kern punts 57 yards to NE 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-D.Amendola to NE 34 for 12 yards (33-T.Smith, 48-B.Brinkley).

The Three Options

GO -3.04 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.61 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 79, worth -4.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model