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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 7 – New England Patriots 35

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to NE 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.48 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 61, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 20, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model