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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 46

New England Patriots 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to TEN 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 13 for 3 yards (31-J.Jones). PENALTY on TEN-53-D.Bates, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 10.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.60 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth +0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model