Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 78

Philadelphia Eagles 9 – New England Patriots 3

(13:16) 8-D.Jones punts 41 yards to NE 37, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.13 EP
62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 78, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model