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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 7

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 4-J.Elliott 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.62 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 7, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model